Even in the country's most resilient areas,
2009 prices are expected to fall flat.
The
housing boom passed right over
Little Rock, Ark.
So
has the bust.
This
quiet mountain metropolis of just
over 675,000 saw none of the wild
speculation of former boomtowns like
Las Vegas or Miami, nor the ruined
fortunes that followed. Of course,
Little Rock isn't completely
isolated from the recent housing
downturn. There are 200 foreclosures
in the works, according to
Trulia.com, an online real estate
data provider. Developers are
scrapping new housing projects, and
sales activity froze in the third
quarter.
But
housing prices in Little Rock don't
look likely to fall by more than
about 1% by the middle of next year.
That's because they never climbed
like they did in the rest of the
country. In fact, 1% is about how
much they have risen in the last
year.
It's
the same story for McAllen, Texas,
Syracuse, N.Y., Pittsburgh, Buffalo,
N.Y., and El Paso, Texas. They top
the list of the country's strongest
real estate markets, in part
because, like Little Rock, "none ...
participated in the housing boom,"
says Mark Zandi, chief economist for
Moody's Economy.com. "Some are down
just because the economy is bad."
Behind the Numbers
To
compile this list, we asked Moody's
Economy.com to compile a list of the
country's real estate markets that
are nearest to recovery. Moody's
looked at the country's
Census-defined metro
areas--including metropolitan and
micropolitan statistical areas--with
populations over 500,000, and
prepared forecasts through 2011.
They then compared them to prices in
the second quarter of 2008, which
are the latest figures available, to
calculate how far prices will likely
fall before reaching bottom.
Not
one metro area will see prices
increase before the end of this
year, according to Zandi's
forecasts. The strongest metro areas
will be flat at best--but that's
better than the 15% drop Moody's
expects on average in the U.S.
Prices won't start to pick up again
until late this year or sometime
next year even in the strongest
markets.
That's because there are
countervailing forces at work. The
job market is weakening all over. On
the other hand, new housing starts
are down, which should help reduce
supply--eventually. And, at just
over 5% for a conforming 30-year
mortgage, interest rates are lower
than they've been in more than 35
years. |